As part of the High-End Climate Impacts and Extremes (HELIX) project, I generated global glacier volume loss projections for climate scenarios that exceed the 2 degree Paris target. The projections were made by developing a glacier scheme for the JULES land surface model and forcing this with an ensemble of downscaled CMIP5 models.

Left: Emsemble mean glacier volume loss for High Mountain Asia and high-end temperaure and precipitation changes by the end of the cenury. Right: Multi-model regional sea-level rise projections. Figure from Shannon et al., 2019

For the ice2sea project, I developed a meltwater lubrication parameterisation for the Greenland ice sheet. The scheme was used by four ice sheet modelling groups to estimate the impact of meltwater-enhanced lubrication on future sea-level rise.

Left: Ice velocity observations used to derived a basal sliding scheme. Middle: The effect of meltwater-enhanced lubrication on sea-level rise. Right: Pattern of additional thickness change generated by enhanced lubrication by the CISM 2.0 model. Figures from Shannon et al., 2013.

I contributed to the Glacier Model Inter-Comparison Project (GlacierMIP2) by developing and running JULES glacier volume loss experiments. GlacierMIP2 was a coordinated international effort to compare and improve global-scale glacier mass change models to reduce uncertainties in global glacier projections.

The relative contribution of each source of uncertainty to the total uncertainty of projected specific mass balance rate. Figure from Marzeion et al., 2020